Donald Trump's inauguration speech: Six themes which emerged
Toned down compared to the 'American Carnage' of 2016 era, we look at what we learned from the 47th US President being sworn in
Attempting to make sense of a Donald Trump speech is an inherently futile exercise, like spending your time pointing out all the ways that pro wrestling is a choreographed performance and not a 'real sport'.
Nonetheless, something resembling a concept of a plan emerged from Trump’s inaugural speech, which was less angry than the “American Carnage” speech of 2016, but sinister in its conflation of the fortunes of America, Trump and God. So what do the runes say?
Trade wars ahead?
The “External Revenue Service” was a good soundbite. But realistically, can America get rich on tariffs? For a president who won an election on a promise to reduce inflation, increasing the cost of imports - Trump has already signalled a possible 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico - seems a dangerous tactic. For the rest of the world - and particularly post-Brexit Britain, advantageous trade deals look a long way off. Oh, and Panama is run by China. Or something.
Justice for all?
Early in his speech, Trump described his approach as “common sense”. In the context of what was to come, that signals something. Trump vowed an end to the political abuse of the justice system - clearly alluding to his own cases. But Joe Biden is clearly concerned enough about Trump’s potential abuse of the justice system that he issued pre-emptive pardons for Trump critics and even his own family. If/when Trump does use the courts to pursue his enemies, it will not, of course, be “political”. It will be “common sense”.
Isolationists r Us
Trump complained that the US spends billions protecting others’ borders while being unable to defend its own. This obvious allusion to Ukraine will further alarm President Zelensky, who will sense Trump cajoling him into a deal. Keir Starmer’s long-term agreement with Ukraine signed last week was a clear attempt to show NATO member commitment to its ally, and this should be applauded. But Trump will want to see himself as the man who did a deal with Vladimir Putin. Europe and the UK will need to stand firm.
Migration as the defining issue
Declaring an emergency on the southern border sounds good to Trump’s supporters, but what does it actually mean? As Rishi Sunak discovered, making migration your core issue is risky and fraught with external factors. Trump didn’t manage to build his wall in term one, or make any serious dent in illegal migration. “Send the army in” isn’t a plan - it’s the absence of a plan. And alienating Mexico with tariffs is unlikely to help cross-border co-operation.
Pray4Science
RFK-tinged moments were dotted through the speech, most prominently in the pledge to reinstate soldiers who had refused vaccinations, but also in allusions to healthy American children. The most likely outcome here is not better school meals or better health insurance, but a bonfire of regulation disguised as a stance against “big food”/”big pharma” for the little guy.
Meanwhile, America will apparently send astronauts to Mars for no specified reason - especially odd given that the only current space race seems to be between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, both of whom were on stage with the president.
Culture wars just got very real
Singling out gender as an ideological wedge was a winning tactic for Trump - and he shows no sign of letting up.
Talk about radical ideologies in the army, in government and on campus will have repercussions for gender non-conforming people, whether through direct legislation (which may struggle in the courts) or more likely through a rapid and nasty vibe shift - (see Meta’s sudden gleeful binning of diversity policies).
“Woke capitalism” was always lighter on the “woke” than the ‘capitalism” - now marginalised people will see government and business lining up against them.
This isn’t the first time we’ve written about Donald Trump, you can see our coverage from when the US election was declared including the lessons learned from the Democrats failures (and what Labour need to take heed of) and our editors reflections on a chilling moment for women around the world.
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