Gaza ceasefire - a cautious welcome for now and where Britain is in all this
Plus in our weekend edition: 'Grey' Labour learnings from the North East, a lifeline for renters going under the radar + is political tide turning on Brexit?
As of the time of writing, it seems the once-unthinkable has finally come to pass: a phased ceasefire in Gaza has been agreed upon, and if nothing changes in the next 24 hours, will come into force on Sunday, January 19th, at 8:30am local.
But compared to the previous ceasefire - more than a year ago - the mood around this one is more subdued and more cautious.
Almost everyone involved hope that this is an opening to a prolonged lull in hostilities, the return of all Israeli hostages and the reconstruction of the thoroughly demolished Gaza Strip; almost nobody will put money on this ceasefire surviving into its second phase, at least not yet.
The reasons for this apprehension are many. First and foremost is exhaustion - this is the longest high-intensity war in the history of both communities, almost twice as long as the cataclysmic War of 1948 that established the state of Israel and turned Palestinians into a stateless people. There were too many false dawns in the past 15 months to fully believe yet another one.
Second is the sheer scale of destruction: Gaza rendered practically uninhabitable, with the north of the enclave deliberately and brutally emptied of civilian population and infrastructure alike; tens of thousands of Palestinian civilian dead, 17,000 of them children; the list of children killed at age zero, too young to even have been named, is several pages long.
On the Israeli side, meanwhile, the state of play doesn’t seem different enough from the status quo ante. Israel justified the unjustifiable by pointing repeatedly to its war goals: “total victory” over Hamas, implied to include its total elimination as both a military and political force; and a return of the hostages.
As the ceasefire comes into effect, Hamas is still unchallenged as Gaza’s sole administrative government, and is still enough of a fighting force to claim fatalities from Israel’s occupying forces on a weekly basis, as well as to shoot a lone, occasional, largely harmless but potently symbolic rocket into mainland Israel.
As for the hostages, it is now estimated that about half of the hostage alive at the time of November 2023 ceasefire are still living. So far, only six of them are certain to have been executed by their captors; the rest are quite likely to have been killed by Israel’s own bombardment (in one well-publicised incident, shot by Israeli forces); or succumbed to their injuries, illnesses, and hunger, held captive among an intentionally famished population. It’s not even clear who among the hostages set to be released in the first phase of the ceasefire is coming home alive, and who in a casket. Expect the celebrations here to be also moot.
And then, of course, there is everything that can go wrong - between Saturday and Sunday, between Phase One and Phase Two, or even when Phase Two is concluded. The discipline of Israel’s forces has been eroded catastrophically over the course of the war, with individual soldiers, commanders and senior officers effectively making up their own rules of engagement and running their own operations in different clusters of the occupied territory; support for “total victory” among troops on the ground is vocal, and it is perfectly plausible some will try to sabotage a retreat or try and provoke their Hamas counterparts into resuming hostilities.
The far-right mainstays of Netanyahu’s coalition voted against the ceasefire but have not yet brought the government down; a plausible threat of them quitting the coalition can push Netanyahu in the opposite direction.
And then there are other parties in the conflict not committed to the ceasefire: independent paramilitary groups in the West Bank, for one, and the Houthis in Yemen, whose drones and ballistic missiles have emerged as a new and urgent threat to Israel’s densely populated central region. If any one of those actors, by some fluke, exacts a significant casualty from Israelis, a new spiral of the conflict can begin that will almost inevitably draw in Gaza.
Finally, of course, we don’t know what, if anything, the incoming Trump administration has promised Netanyahu in exchange for agreeing to a ceasefire.
In order of catastrophic potential, it could be: Trump’s overall good graces - not at all a given, considering the incoming president’s personal contempt for Netanyahu; normalisation with Saudi Arabia in exchange for some pitiful excuse for a Palestinian state; annexation of select areas of the West Bank and Gaza to Israel; and a joint attack on Iran.
The latter appears the least likely, given Trump’s own isolationism; but if it were to take place, it is almost certain to destabilise regimes across the region and provide Israel all the fog of war it could possible want to resume a war on Palestinians with even greater ferocity and even more atrocious results, including bloody and permanent displacement of most Palestinians beyond the border of historic Palestine.
This, in itself, remains the dream and objective of a significant faction in the Israeli settlement movement, who have been hailing the past bloody year as as “miraculous” and who believe stopping the war now would squander a once-in-a-century opportunity to cement an overwhelming Jewish majority in significantly improved and expanded borders; and who will do their best to ensure the second phase of the ceasefire doesn’t come to pass.
Where is Britain in all this? In terms of assisting the ceasefire, nowhere much; little to none of Britain’s leverage appears to have been used, certainly not effectively, since the war began.
Some might hope that a ceasefire would allow a measure of healing between the left and the centre-right factions of the Labour Party, but they will find something else to squabble about - especially if the ruling faction persists in its triumphalism over the Left and continues to measure any and all progressive steps against their likelihood for invoking accusations of Corbynism.
This and other divisions that drew on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for ammunition will remain, as will potential direct challenges to Keir Starmer. Chief among these is the International Criminal Court arrest warrants against Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence minister, Yoav Galant, which are not part of any likely ceasefire arrangement. What will Yvette Cooper do if either of the two men lands at Heathrow?
What will Starmer do, when the Trump administration embarks on its promised crusade against the International Criminal Court? Judging by how susceptible he has been to pressure from far less formidable right-wing forces, neither scenario looks promising for the rules-based international order or for what progressive credibility Labour still has to play with.
In all this murk, one speck of light comes from an utterly unpredictable direction. There are many competing narratives on what got the ceasefire deal under the line, but it appears to be fairly obvious that a key factor was Trump’s approach to the conflict proving far less amenable than Netanyahu has been gambling on - and certainly less constrained by any sentiment towards Israel’s history or the history of the American-Israeli alliance. According to Al-Monitor, after a year of supplication and impotent protestations from Biden, Trump’s envoy to the negotiations took a completely different approach:
“Last Saturday, on the Jewish Sabbath, Netanyahu met for an unscheduled sit-down with Trump’s envoy on hostages, Steve Witkoff, who was in the region to ensure that the president-elect got his wish. According to people privy to the conversation, the American real estate investor wagged his finger in Netanyahu's face and said in a quiet but clear voice, "Don't f--- this up.”
Again - we still don’t know what Trump’s vision, if any, is for the Middle East conflicts. But it seems that if it diverges from Netanyahu’s, his team, for once, is unafraid to use leverage - and it works. Western governments, including the Labour one, should take note.
Regret on Brexit is spreading across the political divide
Kemi’s hinting at Brexit regret, Ed Davey wants to re-join the customs union and Labour…
Westminster Editor Zoë Grünewald dives into a growing realisation that Brexit and the economy (durr!) are inter-linked. There’s an opportunity for Labour to take the lead here, she argues. But Starmer’s position and comments are putting them in an increasingly difficult position.
’Grey Labour’ in action
A learning, and perhaps a warning, from the North East of England. In
then looked at how Labour MPs had been suckered into playing by Metro Mayor Ben Houchen’s rules.He draws parallels to the concept of ‘Grey Labour’ which is increasingly growing traction, about not utilising the opportunity to do different, innovative and interesting approaches. While ‘parking the bus’ may be the preferred political approach at present, it risks running out of road as opponents make political hay.
Leigh’s take is well worth a read for a real-life example rather than political theorising.
Under the radar: Renters reform bill
People often talk about a housing crisis when it comes to buying a home. The rental market is also a bin fire.
In amongst all the political news and angst this week it is easy to lose sight of the Renters Reform Bill making its steady way through.
Zoë Grünewald takes you through what’s in it and why it’s a crucial step the government is making.
Re-open Southport Pier, Keir!
Our commitment to in-depth news and features across the North of England remains steadfast, and we need the government to show that same commitment - as our newest title
begins its campaign to re-open Southport Pier.It would be a much-needed economic shot in the arm for the seaside town. You can read what Jamie Lopez and Andrew Brown have to say in our latest Southport edition, and sign the petition and share it too.
You can see all our in-depth news and features in our dedicated The Lead North section, where we bring those stories to our national edition and newsletter. If you can consider tapping below for a paid subscription to help support our mission to bring in-depth local journalism to the North of England.
And that’s our weekend edition, thanks to Dimi for dusting off that quill in light of the ceasefire news (he can never quite escape The Lead!).
We hope you have a good weekend, whatever your plans, and we’ll be back in your inbox during Tuesday when it may very well feature something about a certain Donald Trump.
All the very best
Ed, Zoe, Luke, Natalie, Sophie and Leah
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