Keir Starmer is a war-time Prime Minister. This changes everything.
With events in Ukraine it is time for the government to abandon its unrealistic pre-election spending and tax promise in pursuit of stronger, more resilient Britain.
Nobody wants war, not least the UK government. When Labour came to power, they assumed that their job would be a light-touch stabilisation of the economy, the health service and the public mood. Things have been less than simple. The economy has flat-lined, public services have deteriorated and the far-right is on the march.
And now, a larger problem is brewing across the Atlantic.
There is little doubt that US President Donald Trump is no longer prepared to abide by the terms of our special relationship. His outlook is one of naked, capitalist expansionism. His advisers bait and attack UK ministers. He is provoking trade wars within the global economy, with little care for the domestic or global reverberations.
And now, he is seeding the ground to concede Ukraine’s sovereign territory and resources to Russia: an aggressive and insatiable imperial power.
Those who suggest hitching our wagon to Trump are as unpopular as they are foolish. The UK public will not abide a leader who is ready to place the fortunes of our entire country into the hands of a remote-controlled oligarch. Whether he likes it or not, Starmer is now a war-time prime minister.
We can bury our heads in the sand – and see how far it gets us – or we can make contingency plans. The public want the latter.
In every cloud comes a silver lining. Labour now has an opportunity – and a good reason – to break some of its unachievable election promises. The global order has shifted in an unprecedented way at great pace.
Firstly, the argument for strengthening our relationship with the EU, whether that be via the customs union, single market, or re-joining the institution itself has never been stronger.
Our independent economic resilience has been stretched for far too long. Europe’s economy is larger than Russia and China alone. Now, more than ever, we must bolster our economic standing as well as our political alliances.
Now, to spending. The country simply can not tolerate more austerity. There is no good argument against increasing defence spending - possibly far beyond the 2.5 per cent figure that is so often touted. Just last week, the EU announced plans to temporarily ease its fiscal rules to allow countries to spend more on defence. The UK could follow suit - but that can not be the be-all and end-all of our spending and investment.
Security is about resilience, and resilience does not just stem from artillery, bullets and planes.
Our country will not survive a crippling cyber attack if our local authorities and national health service aren’t properly staffed and trained, and its technological capabilities are not invested in and strengthened. Our economy will not survive a sustained trade war if we are not joined up with other global supply chains and if we do not invest in our own home-grown industry. Our energy markets will not survive further shocks without investment in renewables and clean energy.
Most importantly, our people will not join forces in a show of solidarity against imperialist aggression if they feel they have nothing to fight for. Raising living standards, building more housing and building communities are a vital element of the fight against facism. Unity is what frightens Putin most.
Labour has thus far been cautious about raising taxes, sitting, too often in the pockets of the City of London, big business and the right-wing papers. The tried and tested argument is that millionaires flee the UK at the first sign of tax raises.
This notion is always amusing - presuming that even the most selfish businessman does not understand the clear relationship between healthy, functioning public services and the energy and productivity of his workforce.
But the case against such a line is even stronger now. If businesses aren’t willing to sacrifice a little more of their top line, there may well be no world left to trade in. The government can go one step further, never before has there been a better time to invest in Britain: we are investing in ourselves for the first time in decades. We are once again standing with our European counterparts to save Western democracies: are you with us?
Much of Starmer’s premiership has been marked by a distinct lack of leadership. His refusal to be radical has been interpreted as continuity politics at a time of immense geopolitical and social change. It feels as if the Labour government is standing still while the rest of the world passes it by.
Yesterday, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch gave a speech at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship, parroting Trumpian talking points, repeating incendiary claims that free speech is under attack in Europe, dismissing the real threat of Russia, big-tech dominance or fascism.
In this line of thought, the Conservatives are making a deadly mistake. Let them. Popular opinion in this country is not with Trump, Vance, Musk or Putin. Someone should also inform Badenoch that the British people are far more concerned about the money in their pocket, their health service and growing imperialist threats than they are diversity quotas on NHS boards or defining a woman. But this blindness strengthens Starmer’s cause further - his opposition are concussed, still reeling from their electoral knock-out. Let them blunder headfirst into a wall.
Starmer may not like it - but his premiership could end up being one of the most consequential in history.
All the red lines he has painted for himself require the bravery of a leader to overstep them. The country must bolster its security. The rich must pay their share. The old order is dead and with it lies broken promises. But out of the ashes, a new, stronger Britain can be born.
At The Lead we have Westminster Editor Zoë Grünewald across all things politics, she writes for us each week on what’s happening in the corridors of power. Her recent pieces include why immigration is not the topic we should be focused on, Farage’s attacks expose his hatred of the education system and how the tide may be turning on Brexit, and Labour could lead. Subscribe below to support Zoe’s writing and ensure you’re receiving our long-read news and features every Tuesday and Thursday, as well as our weekend edition on Saturday mornings too.