Why Starmer might not be ready to go just yet

Open rebellion means the Prime Minister's position is precarious. But there's a reason the knives haven't been drawn

Sir Keir Starmer was under severe pressure in the Commons this week Pic: UK Parliament/Flickr

Sir Keir Starmer is facing the most serious crisis of his premiership. The Mandelson affair, the apology to Epstein’s victims, the open rebellion on the Commons floor, has left Labour MPs furious, and publicly unsure whether their leader can carry on. Even Starmer’s allies are no longer confidently defending his position.

And yet there is a reason that the knives remain sheathed. Replacing a sitting prime minister is not just a question of anger or optics, but power, procedure and an obvious alternative.

Start with the mechanics. For Starmer to go, Labour MPs would have to coalesce around a successor who could command confidence immediately. This is not opposition politics, where leadership churn can be theatrical and, let’s face it, a little self-indulgent. Labour is in government, so any transition would involve installing an interim prime minister, navigating a leadership election with a high nomination threshold, and doing so while the country watches markets, by-elections and international politics nervously.

Here, the deeper problem is political rather than procedural: there is no clear replacement waiting in the wings.

The parliamentary party is fractured and certainly not aligned. Senior cabinet figures may be respected, but few command broad loyalty. Some are too closely associated with the current operation, while others lack a national profile. Some still need their arms twisted, some need talking down off a ledge. That matters because Labour MPs know what the public sees. The Mandelson scandal may be toxic, but so is instability.

This leaves Labour in a bind: a weakened prime minister, an angry parliamentary party, and no consensus on what comes next. Starmer may still fall, but those demanding his immediate replacement underestimate the vacuum that would follow. For now, the problem facing Labour is not just whether Starmer can survive, but whether anyone else is ready to take his place. ■

About the author: Zoë Grünewald is Westminster Editor at The Lead. She is a regular political commentator on TV and radio and a panellist on the Oh God What Now podcast.

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