The point about Labour losing votes to the Greens but seats to Reform is really interesting, and the most important observation from today because it has a consequence that goes beyond the political. A party squeezed simultaneously from both sides can't write a coherent fiscal platform - whoever succeeds Starmer will have to choose which voters to chase, and that choice will move gilt yields more than the leadership contest itself. Today the 30-year rallied on Starmer staying but, another repricing will come when his successor (if there is one) decides on the direction of their economic policies.
The point about Labour losing votes to the Greens but seats to Reform is really interesting, and the most important observation from today because it has a consequence that goes beyond the political. A party squeezed simultaneously from both sides can't write a coherent fiscal platform - whoever succeeds Starmer will have to choose which voters to chase, and that choice will move gilt yields more than the leadership contest itself. Today the 30-year rallied on Starmer staying but, another repricing will come when his successor (if there is one) decides on the direction of their economic policies.