The Lead Untangles: As many as 100,000 Ukrainian refugees face uncertainty in visa extension bids
Campaigners are worried the design of the scheme will put Ukrainian refugees at risk of losing their jobs and homes
At a glance facts
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, nearly seven million people fled the country in the following days, weeks, months and years. Although several European countries relaxed their entry and visa requirements for those fleeing the war, the UK chose to introduce the Ukraine Family Scheme and the Homes for Ukraine scheme, both which initially allowed Ukrainians to live, work and study in the UK for up to three years.
For those who arrived when the war started, their three-year visas are coming to an end, but as of 4 February, Ukrainian refugees who fled to the UK can apply to the Ukrainian Permission Extension visa scheme.
The extension will grant Ukrainians 18 more months in the UK, but must be applied for during a 28-week window prior to the expiration of their current visa. Applicants to the extension “usually” get a decision within eight weeks from the Home Office.
For Ukrainians who arrived in March 2022, this eight-week gap could leave as many as 100,000 people to face uncertainty as they are unsure of how to prove their right to be in the UK between the time their current visa ends and the extension decision is made.
Campaigners are worried the design of the scheme will put Ukrainian refugees at risk of losing their jobs and homes.
Similar schemes, like the EUSS, have been shown to be ‘broken’, suggesting this extension scheme will follow suit.
Ukrainians have already been refused tenancy renewals, with some told they will have to stop working during the extension process as their visa expirations loom.
While the extension offers some form of security, the International Rescue Committee has said that “the urgent need for a permanent solution for Ukrainian refugees is more pressing than ever.”
Context
In the last three years, many Ukrainians entering the UK through the Ukraine Family Scheme and Homes for Ukraine sponsorship programme have put down roots. They’ve found homes to rent, families to live with, jobs to work, and schools for their children to be educated in.
And yet, their status in the UK is still only temporary.
There is no road map for how they can remain in the UK long term if they aren’t able to return to Ukraine, or if they should wish to remain in the UK once the war is over because this has become home.
Though initially thought to be quite generous, the Ukraine schemes were significantly tightened under the Sunak Government. In February 2024, the Ukraine Family Scheme was closed to new applicants, sponsor eligibility to become a Homes for Ukraine sponsor was restricted, and Homes for Ukraine visas were given for 18 months, rather than three years.
Since the changes, the only way Ukrainians can get to the UK is if a British citizen or someone with indefinite leave to remain volunteers to take them in. This meant that Ukrainians in living in the UK without permanent residence could not sponsor family members to join them in the UK. Yet, the number of hosts has drastically declined since the start of the war, according to analysis from openDemocracy.
Thankfully, in January, the Labour government announced a parent or legal guardian who is in the UK under any of the visa schemes for Ukrainians can apply to sponsor their child under the Homes for Ukraine scheme.
Permanent residency (indefinite leave to remain) has never been not allowed under either of the schemes, making it different from standard visas or grant of refugee statues which allow permanent resident after five years. Both Conservative and Labour governments have said Ukraine will be safe to return to and the visas are therefore only temporary measures.
And yet for many, returning to home to Ukraine might become impossible in the near future, as President Trump announced last week that he had started peace negotiations with Vladimir Putin which could lead to parts of occupied Ukraine being given over to Russia.
Providing yet another temporary solution to the ongoing war, the Home Office announced they would “stand should-to-shoulder with the people of Ukraine in their fight against Russia’s illegal invasion” by “providing certainty for Ukrainian visa holders in the UK with a new scheme to extend their stay by 18 months.”
Concerns have been raised regarding the inability to prove eligibility to stay beyond March in cases where applications were made on time, but the Home Office has not yet made a decision, or when applications have not been made on time, for reasons relating to language barriers or vulnerabilities.
Other apprehensions regarding the extension include the Home Office’s ability to process the tens of thousands of applications made, and scammers taking advantage of Ukrainians’ insecurity.
The lack of long-term uncertainty from the Home Office compounded by worrying headlines from back in Ukraine, has left Ukrainian refugees in the UK feeling anxious about their current lives and future plans.
A support worker in Solihull told the Guardian she was already seeing lots of Ukrainian refugees struggling to renew tenancy agreements and being made homeless.
“We run support groups, and I can see people starting to break,” she said. “There’s a lot of PTSD, and the welcoming atmosphere in the UK helped heal some of the initial wounds, but now those are being reopened as many are feeling stressed by the uncertainty.”
What the Ukrainian Permission Extension does
Ukrainian nationals, or the family member of a Ukrainian national, who have been living in the UK with existing permission on one of the Ukraine schemes could be eligible to apply for the Ukraine Permission Extension scheme to continue living in the UK for a further 18 months.
Individual applications must be made for adults and children, and can only be made when current permission has 28 days or less remaining until it expires.
An early application could be rejected or not considered.
If an application is made after current permission expires, you can still apply, but work, rent, and benefits entitlements will be lost until the late application decision is made.
All applications must be made within the UK.
After the application is made, the Home Office has said a 3C leave decision should “usually” be sent within eight weeks, giving the applicant 18 more months in the UK.
If the current permission to be in the UK expires before a decision is made an the extension, a person, there will be “some additional information underneath your National Insurance number that will confirm that you are able to stay in the UK until a decision has been made on your application and that you retain the same rights as your original permission.”
Following a successful application, Ukrainian refugees will have 18 months’ further leave to remain in the UK. After that, the position or plan is unclear.
If an application is refused, there is no right of appeal, but the Home Office has stated that Ukrainians are eligible to apply again for free.
What the left is saying
“Since Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion, we have offered or extended sanctuary to over 300,000 Ukrainians and their families. We have always recognised the importance of providing certainty and security for them, and continue to do so. The Ukraine permission extension scheme provides that certainty and will allow those with permission under one of the existing Ukraine schemes to apply for 18 months’ additional permission to remain in the UK. Given the unpredictable nature of this conflict, we continue to keep our Ukraine schemes under review.” – Government Spokesperson
“To provide future certainty, Ukrainians provided with temporary sanctuary in the UK under the Ukraine visa schemes can apply for a further 18 months' permission to remain in the UK through the Ukraine Permission Extension (UPE) scheme, which opened to applications on 4 February 2025. The Homes for Ukraine scheme remains open, uncapped and free of charge for Ukrainians in need of sanctuary to apply to come to the UK. The Government keeps the Ukraine schemes under review and engages, where appropriate, with relevant stakeholders while closely monitoring developments in Ukraine.” Seema Malhotra Labour MP for Feltham and Heston
“I just think, why can’t we extend this generosity of spirit to others? If you’ve lost your home, you’ve lost your home. It doesn’t matter whether that’s in Ukraine or Syria, Palestine or Yemen. It doesn’t sit well with me that we’re not being as generous with people fleeing all sorts of atrocities. But there we are. You can only deal with what’s in front of you and do what you can.” Labour MP for Middlesbrough Andy McDonald
“It would not be an anti-war stance to turn our backs on Ukraine. It would be sending a message to despots around the globe that war crimes pay.” Labour MP for Nottingham East Nadia Whittome
What the right is saying
“This new visa extension scheme provides certainty and reassurance for Ukrainians in the UK on their future as this war continues, and we will continue to provide a haven for those fleeing the conflict. Families across the country have opened their homes and their hearts to the people of Ukraine, showing extraordinary generosity, including offering shelter to those fleeing from the horrors of war." Former Border Minister Tom Pursglove
“The first visas issued under the schemes will expire in spring 2025, so we need to start thinking about what will happen next to those Ukrainians living in the UK, because they need security and certainty. It is not just the Ukrainians themselves who need that; employers, schools and others need to know whether the refugees can stay here for longer, especially as the war does not seem to be ending.” Former Conservative MP for Mid Derbyshire Pauline Latham
“As we approach a year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is unacceptable that thousands of people who arrived in the UK to escape the conflict are now facing homelessness. While the announcement of continued funding under the existing schemes for both sponsors and refugees is welcome, more must be done to prevent increasing numbers of Ukrainian refugees from being forced into homelessness.” Conservative MP for Harrow East Bob Blackman and Labour MP for Vauxhall and Camberwell Green Florence Eshalomi
What happens next
Ukrainian refugees’ whose current visas are coming to an end will be advised to apply for the 18-month extension.
However, their future, whether in the UK or back in Ukraine is uncertain, especially in light of the start of Trump Putin peace negotiation talks.
Ukrainian refugees and campaigners are increasingly calling on the UK Government to offer a route to settlement, with a petition on the Parliament website already over 30k signatures.
About The Lead Untangles: In an era where misinformation is actively and deliberately used by elected politicians and where advocates and opposers of beliefs state their point of view as fact, sometimes the most useful tool reporters have is to help readers make sense of the world.
The Lead Untangles is delivered each Friday by The Lead and focuses on a different complex, divisive issue with each edition.
About the author: Lauren Crosby Medlicott is a freelance journalist who focuses on features about social justice and human rights.
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