The Lead Untangles: What's on the table at COP30?

This year's climate change conference comes at a pivotal moment.

The city of Belém Pic: Burn86 /Wikipedia

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Next week, world leaders will gather in Brazil for COP30, the United Nations [UN] climate summit attended by countries that signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC] in 1992.

Fifteen years on from the Paris Agreement, and at a key halfway point of the “make-or-break decade” for tackling the climate emergency, this year’s conference marks yet another turning point for the planet, with many countries having failed to meet previous targets.

Meanwhile ‘net-zero’ has become a political football in the UK, with the right pushing an climate-sceptic agenda and departments in the current government clashing over ambitions.

Taking place in the city of Belém, which sits on the outskirts of the Amazon rainforest, it’s safe to say COP30 is taking place at a particularly precarious time for climate action.

What’s the current picture going into COP30?

António Guterres, secretary general of the UN, recently acknowledged it was “inevitable” the world would fail to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees, the commitment made in the Paris Agreement in 2015, with America having pulled out a second time earlier this year.

February this year was the deadline for countries to submit their updated national climate plans, known as NDCs. However, out of 197, only 13 countries (including the UK) met the initial deadline. Now, 64 have submitted their plans as of this week. However, countries representing 70 per cent of global emissions have yet to submit their plans.

The UNFCCC’s NDC Synthesis Report, published in October found current pledges would reduce emissions by about 17 per cent from their 2019 levels, far short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees.

So what’s on the table?

Fewer than 60 leaders have registered to attend this year’s conference, according to the Brazilian hosts, compared with more than 80 at COP29 in Baku, and more than 150 in Dubai the year before. Having pulled out of the Paris Agreement, US President Donald Trump won’t be attending, but Keir Starmer will be joined by Prince William at this year’s event.

With targets missed, COP30 is likely to focus on implementation of current initiatives, rather than announcing new plans. In its Third Letter, published in May, the COP30 presidency discussed moving “from a negotiation-centred to an implementation-centred era”. The presidency wants to do this by focusing on six key areas: “greening” energy and transport; protecting forests, oceans and biodiversity; making cities more resilient; transforming food systems; boosting human and social development; and “cross-cutting enablers and accelerators”.

On this note, Ed Miliband has said the UK government will “call for COP30 to respond to the 2035 NDCs brought forward so far and how we will close the gap to keep 1.5°C within reach,” and work on reforming the Global Climate Action Agenda, which involves the private sector, subnational leaders, and civil society as well as governments.

Taking place on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, it’s no doubt that the protection of nature will be a top priority. Brazil is set to launch the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, which would see countries with large forests (such as the Amazon) provided with long-term, predictable finance for conservation, with 20 per cent of funding supporting Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities, something Miliband has pledged to get behind.

Following last year’s commitment to the new collective quantified goal [NCQG] on climate finance, which called for scaling up finance for developing countries to at least £1trillion by 2035, COP30 will focus on delivery, via the Baku to Belém Roadmap.

Another core facet of COP30 will be adaptation: according to the OECD, countries are expected to agree on a package of outcomes on adaptation, meaning initiatives to help strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Will COP30 make a difference?

An Ipsos poll published in October found that, across 30 countries, 49 per cent of people say COP30 will be merely symbolic without real change, while only 34 per cent think it will be effective and bring concrete results in the fight against climate change.

While emissions have risen globally, they have fallen in some countries (such as the UK) and progress is being made, albeit not fast enough.

If nothing else, COP allows countries to hold one another accountable. And, as Rob Soutar of the Bureau of Investigative Journalism noted, Brazil is well placed diplomatically to encourage all countries to act accordingly.

What are people saying?

UN general secretary António Guterres said: “It is absolutely indispensable to change course in order to make sure that the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon.

“We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease of emissions as soon as possible.”

Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said: “We can celebrate that there’s no more things to be negotiated... now is the time to be accountable and deliver.”

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “I genuinely believe that only by coming together and committing and coming back and looking at the commitments we made in the past, and making the argument is really important. And I think one of the main reasons for going is to continue to make that case.”

What happens next?

Talks will commence on Monday 10th November and continue through to Friday 21st November. At the end, countries should have committed to a global goal for adaptation and an ambition framework for how to implement existing policies and meet existing targets.

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