Trump tariffs must not be a signal to climb deeper into his pocket
Plus: The Lead Untangles a wealth tax, how Net Zero commitments are getting lost and inside the Common Law Conspiracy
We all have those friends. Unreliable, flaky, perhaps a little two-faced. They’ll smile at you one moment and stab you in the back the next. Such relationships can be testing, but sometimes their redeeming traits – loyalty in the toughest times, a knack for making you smile – make them worth keeping around.
Sadly for Keir Starmer - as demonstrated by Donald Trump’s announcement of global tarrifs on Wednesday - his friend across the pond does not possess such qualities. The UK prime minister may like to pretend that he and the megalomaniac toddler in the White House share a friendship above politics, but this toxic relationship serves neither him nor the country. Any decent therapist would tell Starmer it’s time to cut Trump off cold turkey – and, crucially, to ask himself why he was drawn to this terrible friend in the first place.
The answer? Brexit. The UK’s post-Brexit fortunes have followed a grimly predictable path. We left our European allies chasing an illusion of economic and sovereign freedom, only to find ourselves weaker on both fronts. Our borders are less controlled than before. Our economy has taken a massive hit from losing our best trading partners. We stand isolated as war rages in Ukraine, our international standing undoubtedly harmed by our delusions of grandeur.
So what now? Brexiteers—consistently wrong about everything thus far—will argue that the UK must rush to strike a deal with Trump. Climb further into his pocket. What could possibly go wrong?
But the most self-destructive move has been our desperate pivot to the US to compensate for Brexit’s economic damage. This might have seemed tolerable when a friendly, liberal administration was in charge – though even under Joe Biden – we failed to secure a meaningful trade deal.
The real mistake was not recognising America’s slow slide into authoritarianism. If Trump’s first presidency was a warning shot, his second will be an execution. Already, Trump has launched an anti-democratic assault on the US. He’s banning books, punishing law firms that oppose him, threatening to disband the Department of Education to limit free thought, and delegitimising judges. He’s deporting immigrants and detaining protesters without due process, suppressing free speech, dismantling diversity initiatives, and threatening the press. Most chillingly, he’s floated the idea of a third term in office and pardoned hundreds of January 6 insurrectionists. His disdain for Western liberal democracy is clear.
Now, his destruction extends beyond America. His cavalier disrespect toward his neighbouring allies - Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Panama - have demonstrated this US president is not the isolationist many hoped, but a capital-hungry imperialist. His newly announced tariffs are just the start - and will send shockwaves through the global economy. The UK, “spared” with a 10 per cent tariff, may think it has escaped lightly, but the wider economic consequences will be devastating (and some industries will be badly affected). With the EU facing a 20 per cent tariff and China a staggering 53 per cent, a global recession is surely on the horizon.
So what now? Brexiteers—consistently wrong about everything thus far—will argue that the UK must rush to strike a deal with Trump. Climb further into his pocket. What could possibly go wrong?
The adults in the room have a better idea. Trump’s tariffs are not just economic policy; they are tools of destabilisation, designed to undermine international institutions, entrench inequality and give the US unchecked dominance over its allies. They will hurt the poorest in the US and worldwide—while Russia, notably, has escaped unscathed.
Hitching our wagon to Trump would be a disaster. He has no interest in the UK’s fortunes and shares none of our values. He sees us as useful idiots in his expansionist agenda. Instead, we should pivot to allies who share our values. A free trade agreement with allies like the EU and Canada could provide a counterweight to US aggression. A new global order - apart from the US - could strengthen its defences to shield vulnerable economies like Vietnam and Bangladesh from the worst pain. Even negotiation with China—a path the UK was already exploring—may now be necessary.
There is no longer any excuse not to seek closer ties with the EU. Consistent polling shows strong British support for an economic reset that mitigates Brexit’s damage and shields us from Trump’s reign of fury. Already, movements to boycott American products are circulating on social media. If Starmer took advantage of this feeling and pursued it full-force, he would have backing from the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and even moderate Tories struggling to parrot Kemi Badenoch’s endorsement of Trumpian populism.
Starmer cannot afford to cower before authoritarian bullies. He knows another waits in the wings here in the UK, and strengthening Trump only strengthens his domestic imitators. To capitulate would be existential. It’s time for bravery in a new era. Labour promised change - they now have an opportunity to deliver.
It’s time to learn the lesson we should have grasped long ago: some relationships aren’t just toxic, they’re fatal. They can make us question our sanity and values, they can change who we fundamentally are. Starmer must walk away before the UK finds itself further isolated from its allies, having mistaken dependency for loyalty and self-destruction for strength.
Each week we take a topic in the news and go deep, giving you both sides and insight beyond the headline. This week it’s The Lead Untangles on the idea of a wealth tax. Could it be a way to ‘fiscal headroom’ for Rachel Reeves and Labour?
How the Tories are tying themselves up in knots when it comes to Net Zero, Adam Barnett looks at the wider repercussions of having an opposition who are letting Labour have an easy time of it on the environment when climate should be mission critical to the government.
Last month we brought you an eye-opening read from Katherine Denkinson into the world of the Common Law Conspiracy. She went deep into the web of mistruths circulating. For paid subscribers she speaks with us about her investigation, how it came about and some of the issues raised.
This week we’ve also brought you our look at how misinformation is increasing fuel poverty - at a time when energy bills continue to rise and we also have a great feature from Matty Edwards centred on Bristol in what’s happening, or not happening, with social housing in the city and the wider challenges around ensuring people have a safe place to live in the UK.
That’s all for our weekend edition of The Lead, we hope you have a restful weekend and get a chance to see some sunshine which we’ve been blessed with lately and we’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday.
Ed, Zoe, Luke, Sophie, Natalie and The Lead team
Something which may not be known to Britons is that the reason that Russia has not been affected is that Putin's puppet has been a great asset to him for decades. The other thing that MOST Britons do not know is that his partner in crime was the one and only Steve Bannon who was a big factor behind Brexit! Destabilise the EU by removing the UK on the one side, and then pivoting the USA away from NATO. All following Putin's plan. I was born in the UK, spent most of my adult life in the USA, and moved to France 10 years ago, so I have seen it from both sides now.
Do you remember when Hugh Grant was prime minister and delivered that wonderful speech to the US president, whose name I can’t remember, in Downing St, and we all cheered? Keir Starmer needs to locate his inner Hugh Grant.