As he prepares to take the stage for his first Labour Party conference speech as leader and as prime minister (an unusual sequence of events), Andy Burnham must know that he’s had luck on his side - so far.
Nigel Farage’s Reform, the juggernaut he forced a Mancunian by-election to stop, held a shambolic party conference earlier this month, overshadowed by an international row over his £72m in donations from two billionaire crypto-tech benefactors.
Violence breaking out after the arrival of protesters did little to make Farage look like a prime minister in waiting when compared to the relaxed and clearly joyful work ethic of the Labour incomer.
Luckily for Burnham, the people of Piddington hadn’t managed to hold their performative little referendum in time for the party to capitalise on immigration and migrant rights being back on the news agenda. That luck won’t hold out long; Kemi Badenoch has already been on a personal pilgrimage to the Oxfordshire village.
Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats, a challenger for Labour’s 2024 Middle England vote, held a lacklustre meeting in Brighton this week where they locked themselves in endless disagreement over strategy. The only headlines that broke through focused on EHRC and trans rights - important issues, but ones unlikely to make them the next party of government.
So Burnham travels to his hometown, grieving the loss of his father but in a position of relative confidence. Even three years out, performance in the leader’s speech and his ability to unite the gathered party after two years of bickering and backstabbing could determine the result of the next general election. It is a very serious moment for him, and for the country.
Burnham’s cheap giveaway policies and nice bloke persona have built goodwill but he will need to demonstrate something more solid in Liverpool to secure his position. The first area he will have to tackle is foreign affairs. He meets Trump ahead of the conference and will be watched closely to see if he is able to build a rapport with the notoriously brittle president. He might be able to pull this off.
Although they are ideological opposites, there are some similarities between the two men in their communication style. Burnham appeals to his ordinariness when setting out his point of view: “that’s just me”, he says, as if anyone can relate.
You can hear the same tactic employed by Trump when he prefaces every controversial statement with “I don’t know about you, but…”
There is a hokeyness about them both. They may find common ground, and if they do Burnham can rest easier leaving the hard policy talk at conference to his foreign secretary Ed Miliband. (He did the same when Miliband was subjected to a brutal interview by Radio 4’s Today programme over the decision to ban UK trade with Israeli settlements.)
Elsewhere there are more tripwires. On immigration, Burnham has so far been careful to marginalise the issue in his social media to remove the oxygen from the debate, while also acknowledging how important this one topic has become to the voting public.
Luckily (that word again!) for him, the news crews will have moved on from Piddington by his big speech next Tuesday. That doesn’t mean he can get away without mentioning migration. He will no doubt talk up the drop in small boats, but he needs an announcement that appeals to both his critics and those who share his compassion on this issue. A new resettlement strategy wouldn’t be a surprise.
The prime minister will also need to tackle the issue of welfare. It is one of the first subjects that undid his predecessor, causing Starmer’s first major rebellion, but critics of a tax-and-spend state are out and proud after the revelation that due to inflation Britain’s debt is now £3.5bn higher than previously forecast. Of course, no mention of the fact that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in July, against a prediction of flatlining.
Tackling this issue is likely to force Burnham down a Blairite avenue, talking about a balance between “rights” and “responsibilities”. Taking this route requires delicacy of touch from the PM: if he pushes too hard he will alienate the Labour base currently flirting with Zack Polanski’s Green Party, but there are a growing number of Liberal Democrat waverers too. If he keeps one, he might lose the other.
The Lib Dem-curious will also be looking for clarification on whether their lives will become more predictable after next month’s Budget. The row over the cost of university is ongoing. Most families with teenage and young adult offspring understand Burnham’s motivation in creating new routes into practical career paths and avoiding the assumption that a university education is the only acceptable route into work.
If he fails to address that for those who were always best suited to higher education, the economics no longer work then he is at risk of angering an overstretched generation of centre-left mid-lifers, whose children are heading for university and who in the current economic climate can’t afford to help them avoiding decades of debt. I think this is a most likely rabbit in John Healey’s hat come October. The Liberal Democrat vote is strongest between the ages of 45 and 54. Burnham needs Britain’s parents on side to win the next election.
The prime minister has been leading on easy mode since he took office in early summer. This autumn, consolidating his power will require a strength of belief in his strategy that Starmer was unable to demonstrate. The party conference speech is a curtain raiser for the forthcoming Budget. Both will have to be well received if he is to have any chance of secondary success in 2029. ■
About the author: Hannah Fearn is a freelance journalist specialising in social affairs. She was comment editor of The Independent for seven years, and has previously worked for The Guardian, Times Higher Education and Inside Housing.
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Editor’s note: Zoë Grünewald is away, having recently got married and is enjoying some well earned time off as well as appearing on Sky’s The Wargame(!). All of us at The Lead wish her and her husband many many congratulations on their honeymoon and congrats to Zoe on her new ‘role’ in the government too ;)
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