A decade on from EU Referendum, the public is ready to return but is Westminster?

The majority position is building for closer relationships with the European Union, writes Best For Britain's chief executive Naomi Smith on the 10 year anniversary of the referendum

A Brexit protest outside Westminster Pic: ChiralJon/Wikimedia

We all know the cursed ratio off by heart - 52:48, a tiny victory for the Leave campaign, and certainly no roaring mandate for the very hard version of Brexit we ended up with. Almost immediately after that vote back in 2016, Best for Britain was set up and began publishing its ‘Brexit Shift’ reports, using a then little known polling technique called MRP to track the shift in sentiment from anti to pro-EU membership on a constituency basis. We were surprised how quickly lots of seats that had voted leave, were flipping to Bregret.

A decade on, and the clamour is even louder. Support for rejoining is highest, unsurprisingly, among Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green voters, above 80 per cent in each case. But almost two-fifths of Conservative voters and nearly a fifth of Reform voters also back it.

This is the majority position, held across the political spectrum, and it is growing. The government’s current reset strategy commands broad, but not deep, support: 61 per cent back it, but only 19 per cent feel strongly about it. A membership commitment would generate a movement and propel us in the right direction, and secure the much needed votes for progressives.

The Brexit debate is moving from a culture war to a conversation about realities and charting a path to the kind of country we are ambitious to see realised.

The referendum result was a howl of frustration from communities that had watched their high streets hollow out, wages which fell behind the cost of living and a sense of being ignored by those in Westminster. Being tough on the causes of the vote matters enormously, because it is key to understanding why the conversation has changed and why it can change further still.

The evidence has accumulated to a point where it is simply very hard to overlook. The Bank of England estimates that Brexit has reduced UK GDP by 6 per cent. NBER calculates that business investment has reduced by 12-18 per cent due to leaving the EU. Haulage firms in the UK have been going bust at twice the rate than the five years prior to Brexit. I could go on. I won’t, but what we have is nearly a decade of data and economic loss that has compounded the background of every budget, every NHS waitlist, every unaffordable home, and commensurate polling to show voters would now opt to go back in.

What changed? Views on Brexit are shifting because they are now being formed by lived experience rather than identity or anger. People cannot see their GP any more easily than they could ten years ago. Their weekly shop costs more. Jobs have been lost. And tensions stoked as problems then wrongly blamed on Brussels are now being falsely pinpointed on immigration.

Our latest research has found that reinstating our membership of the EU, our largest trading partner, could generate £92bn in GDP; creating the economic boost we desperately need to fund social services, infrastructure and growth. As we look towards the next ten years, and ask where we want this country to be, the numbers are pointing us in one direction only.

The current government’s instinct has been to dip a toe in the proverbial EU membership pool: a youth mobility scheme here, sector-by-sector agreements there. Partial arrangements deliver partial benefits. They require lengthy negotiations, unavoidable trade-offs, and they do not resolve the underlying challenges that people are facing every day.

The significant economic shift needed to positively impact people’s lives will not come from concluding another incremental agreement, but from signalling a credible intent to pursue membership. That signal alone would begin to change investment decisions, business confidence, and Britain’s standing in a world where our most important friends and neighbours happen to be in the European Union. This would make a real difference in our lives.

Anniversaries often inspire reflection on the past. The question for this anniversary is whether Britain is finally ready to have the honest conversation about where that course has led and where we plan to go. The public, it turns out, is ready. They have been for some time. ■

About the author: Naomi Smith is the chief executive of Best For Britain, a group of researchers, data scientists, strategists, and activists, fixing the problems Britain faces after Brexit

👫Agree with Naomi? Share this story with your friends, family and colleagues to help us reach more people with our independent journalism, always with a focus on people, policy and place.

🇪🇺 This story is the next part in our series examining the impact voting to Leave the European Union had on the UK since June 2016. We’ve dug into the numbers around the economy, immigration and more since the EU Referendum and also heard how Brexit has left our universities in a bleak position. Next we’ll be exploring what life’s been like for EU migrants living here and how Brexit paved the way for Reform. Sign up now to make sure you receive it first.

Plus take advantage of our special offer and get 30 per cent off an annual subscription (usually £49, use this link to get it for £34.30 instead) to help us write more in-depth original series like this, going deep into the issues affecting people, policy and place in the UK right now.