It’s time for Labour to take back control as Reform surges
Labour can destroy Reform’s hold on communities – but they must embrace their working class values and expose Nigel Farage’s elitist hypocrisy
The Reform party is closing in. Nigel Farage’s right-wing party is now the most popular political party in the United Kingdom, a new poll suggests, overtaking both the Conservative and Labour parties. If a general election were held tomorrow, 25 per cent of voters would choose Reform, 24 per cent would back Labour, and 21 per cent would vote Conservative.
Labour should be worried. Before last year’s general election, senior Labour figures were almost laughing when I asked if they were worried that Reform would park their tanks on Labour’s lawn. The prevailing belief was that Farage’s right-wing challenger party was only pulling reactionary votes from the Tories, and that Labour voters would be immune to Reform, given their positions on the EU, green policies, and immigration. There was also a belief that traditional Labour supporters would reject Reform’s more libertarian, anti-state policies—such as a French-style health insurance system, its anti-net zero stance, and low-tax, low-regulation economic approach.
But times have changed. At an intimate event run by Hope Not Hate on the threat of Reform, Nick Lowles, Chair of the campaign group, explained that’s no longer the case: “[Reform are] also taking the rising number of Labour votes, and at a national level, they're taking 7 per cent of Labour. But when you go down to individual seats – and particularly seats with a high propensity of white working-class voters – it can be up to 15 per cent. Sixty of the 71 seats that Reform would pick up are from Labour, 10 from the Conservatives and one from the Liberal Democrats.”
Reform now has its eye set firmly on Labour constituencies, and for good reason. In the local elections, Reform plans to run a hyperlocal campaign, focusing on street-by-street issues: bins, antisocial behaviour, potholes, and issues blighting working-class communities with cash-strapped local authorities. But more broadly, Reform is capitalising on frustrations over stagnant wages, declining living standards, and collapsing public services. Now, over eight in ten Reform voters (84 per cent) think the political system is broken, and 92 per cent believe that “politicians don’t listen to people like me.” That is why, for some, Farage’s policy solutions—or simply his disruptor appeal—are resonating.
Research by HNH has identified five key voter profiles within Reform’s support base. Notably, almost one-third (31.3 per cent) of Reform voters are actually pro-immigration, with an even higher proportion supporting climate action. For these voters, Reform’s appeal isn’t necessarily about its core policies but its anti-establishment stance and rejection of the two-party system.
There are also deep divides among supporters over public ownership and state intervention, with backing from moderate interventionists, the working right, and the older authoritarian right—while traditional conservatives and younger radicals lean toward a smaller state and free-marker conservatism.
What’s clear is that Reform’s support is a mixed bag, not an ideologically coherent bloc. Labour must resist the temptation to shift right on immigration to reclaim Reform voters, as doing so risks alienating its core base while overstating the extent of anti-immigrant sentiment within Reform’s ranks. From a policy perspective, this is also unwise.
The case for a compassionate immigration policy makes sense for our border security, economy and global, ethical obligations. A bold, principled government would create safe and legal routes and channel resources into our asylum system to process applications quickly.
We would design our legal migration system in mind with the needs of our hospitality, healthcare and agricultural sectors while considering the wider cultural and economic needs of the country. Similarly, it should hold firm on climate policy, which still enjoys overwhelming public support, and could help to improve the UK’s energy independence, create jobs, stimulate industries and create growth throughout the country.
Labour’s best defence against Reform is to double down on its working-class values.
Paul Nowak, Chair of the TUC, underlined why Labour’s workers’ rights agenda is crucial in this context.
He told the event: “We know many Reform voters are decent working-class people, including union members who feel let down—let down by wages that aren't growing, let down by insecure employment, and let down by public services that have been systematically run down.”
“Labour's Make Work Pay agenda is so important: improving jobs, boosting pay, delivering decent employment rates, overwhelmingly popular with voters, regardless of who they voted for at the last election. But it's also why Labour does need to make tangible progress on rebuilding our shattered public services, using industrial strategy to actually demonstrate that you can create, protect, and sustain good-quality jobs and give people hope for the future.”
Labour cannot rest their laurels on economic growth. It must be felt in people’s pockets, measured by families deciding they can afford a summer holiday, by the ease of getting a GP appointment, and by workers feeling empowered to challenge an exploitative employer or landlord without fear of reprisal. Labour must push forward—with the determination only a party with a 174-seat majority can afford—on its workers' rights agenda and renters’ reform bill.
It must channel resources into slashing NHS waiting lists and strengthening public services. With over three-quarters of Reform voters supporting the regulation of water companies, Labour should consider nationalising the water industry. It must resist pressure from Davos business leaders on non-dom tax breaks and instead reinvest excess wealth into the services people rely on. If councils go bankrupt—if bins stop being collected, if libraries and leisure centres close—Reform’s grip will only tighten.
But Labour must also be unafraid to take on Farage directly. Ignoring him won’t make him disappear. Reform has professionalised, and Farage enjoys vast name recognition across the country. While he presents himself as the people’s champion, and a voice of honest, unfiltered truth, his record is littered with contradictions—and too often, he gets a free pass from a compliant media. Labour should be relentless in exposing these inconsistencies.
So, they must highlight how every Reform MP voted against Labour’s employment rights reforms. How Reform’s NHS plans would dismantle the system in favour of an insurance-based model. How Farage’s frequent trips to Washington and Mar-a-Lago take him away from his Clacton-on-Sea constituents. They should scrutinise his links to Nomad Capitalist schemes for the ultra-rich, which contradict his supposed anti-globalisation and anti-immigration stance. They should call out his privileged background at Dulwich College, the reality that Brexit— far from taking back control – exacerbated the small boats crisis, and the money he makes from his slot on GB News.
If Labour wants to neutralise the threat of Reform, it must do more than tweak policies. It must deliver real economic security, restore public services, and call out Farage’s political theatre for what it is.
At The Lead we keep a watching brief on the rise of the new far-right, and the populist movements of Reform too. Plus we offer solutions and commentary on Labour in government, see Zoe’s writing on what Labour needs to do in 2025 and all of Zoe’s political writing and commentary.